The next food crisis won't start at the
grocery store. By the time you actually
see it there, it's already too late.
It's happening right now. The first
signs are already showing up much
earlier in fertilizer orders, diesel
costs, drought maps, wheat conditions,
and farmers quietly deciding what they
can afford to put into the ground.
Farmers from India to Brazil to the
American Midwest may not be able to get
the fertilizer they need to grow their
crops.
>> I've been following this very closely.
So, let me connect the dots for you.
Most people are watching grocery prices.
And that makes sense because that is
where households feel the pressure. But
grocery prices are the last signal. They
are downstream. And by the time the
prices of bread, pasta, cereal, beef,
dairy, or fresh vegetables move sharply,
the decisions that cause them are
already months behind us. If you follow
these things closely, as we do on this
channel, you're not predicting anything.
You are just recognizing all the signs
and seeing where they point. That's an
advantage we have before the
sensationalized headlines hit.
>> And that's a challenge that farmers
across the United States have really
been facing as the cost of doing
business keeps going up. That's why I
want to warn you ahead of those
headlines. We talked about this briefly
in last week's news video and we alluded
to pieces of it over the past few weeks.
If you're subscribed to this channel,
you may be already ahead of this story.
But today, I want to slow down and go
deeper because this is one of those
issues that looks boring right now up
until the consequences hit your receipt.
This is not the jagged edge of the cliff
or a total collapse of our food supply.
I'm not going to tell you shelves are
going to be empty tomorrow, but it is
not something I would ignore anymore.
There's a hidden chain behind this food
pressure. Fertilizer matters more than
most people realize. Drought is making
the season less forgiving. Those
combined right now will actually reach
your household. I'm going to tell you
all about it as simply as I can, and I'm
going to also tell you what you need to
do before sensational headlines push
everyone else into panic mode. If you're
new to this channel, my name is Chris
and on this channel we discuss emergency
preparedness, aka prepping. These videos
are not about panic. They're about early
awareness and action. That's also why we
put together the city prepping brief,
which is a weekly intelligence brief
designed to help you track the same
kinds of early warning signs we're
talking about here. I'll link to it
below if you want a simple way to stay
ahead of these stories before they
become mainstream headlines. Let me tell
you, the visible story right now is oil.
The story that you're not hearing as
much about but should be if you want to
be in the no and stay ahead of this is
fertilizer. Most people don't see the
connection until it's too late to act.
The strayer hummus disruption has been
discussed mostly as an oil and gas story
and that's understandable because fuel
prices hit quickly and everyone can see
them at the pump. But that same region
also matters for fertilizer fertilizer
inputs, natural gas shipping and the
global movement of agricultural
products. The part most people miss is
that food does not begin at the store.
It begins in the field. And the field
depends on inputs that have to arrive
before the crop needs them. Farmers,
they can't wait until the public
realizes there's a problem. They have to
make planning and fertilizer decisions
on a schedule set by weather, crop
biology, loan payments, contracts, and
the growing season. And for oil, the
choke point is a straight of for the
choke point is the growing season. And
once that window closes, you can't go
back and fix the crop. Let me repeat
that for you. We cannot go back and fix
what's already baked into this. That's
what people need to understand right
now, but they don't. That is why this
moment matters. A press release can
change in a day. A growing season, it
can't. Farm Daily citing analysis by
North Dakota's state university
researchers noted that the 2026 Hormuz
disruption produced a much faster
response in nitrogen markets than the
2022 shock following Russia's invasion
of Ukraine. URA prices were already up
more than 28% within 3 weeks. And the
strongest immediate effects were
concentrated in nitrogen fertilizers.
That matters because nitrogen is one of
the main nutrients that determines how
much food can be produced per acre. Corn
needs it. Wheat needs it. Many crops
rely on it. And without enough nitrogen,
farmers may still grow a crop, but they
may not grow as much of that crop.
Here's a simple version. Nitrogen is
tied heavily to natural gas and
industrial production. Phosphorus is
tied to mine phosphate rock and chemical
processing. Potassium, which farmers
often get from potach, is tied to
geology. And for the United States, that
mostly means Canada. And this is where
the food systems become less simple than
most people assume. Fertilizer is not
one thing from one place. It is a chain
of mine, minerals, natural gas, chemical
plants, shipping routes, trade policy,
and farm financing. The only problem is
not whether fertilizer exists somewhere
in the world. The problem is whether a
farmer can get the right product at the
right time and at a price that still
allows the crop to make sense. That's
why the farmer survey matters. A
nationwide American Farm Bureau
Federation survey conducted in early
April with more than 5,700 farmers
responding found that roughly 70% said
fertilizer prices were so high they
could not afford all the fertilizer they
needed this season. The South was hit
the hardest with 78% saying they could
not afford all needed inputs compared
with 48% in the Midwest. And honestly,
preparedness is about more than just
food or supplies. It's about recognizing
problems early before they become bigger
issues. A while back, I tried something
I think everyone should do at least
once. I Googled my own name and city.
Honestly, it was unsettling. Within
seconds, I found websites listing my
home address, phone number, relatives,
and other personal details that I never
remember putting online. And it made me
realize something. If I could find all
that easily, anyone else could, too. And
that's a part most people don't think
about. Scammers, identity thieves, and
random strangers can piece together a
surprising amount of information about
your life from public databases and
people's search sites. That's why I
started using Incogn. Instead of trying
to remove your information manually,
Incogn contacts hundreds of websites on
your behalf and requests your data be
deleted. They also keep checking because
this information can reappear over time.
The removal processes were independently
verified by Deote. And with their
unlimited plan, you can use custom
removals. If you find a page exposing
your information, just paste a link into
your dashboard and their privacy
specialists handle the rest. A VPN
protects what you do online going
forward and Cogni removes what's already
out there. They can't harm you if they
can't find you. Use code prepping at
encogi.com/prepping
to get 60% off an annual plan. Now, to
be fair, that does not mean every farm
is in the same position. Some farmers
pre-book fertilizer early. Some regions
are better supplied than others. Some
operations have manure, chicken litter,
cover crops, or other ways to stretch
their inputs. Farming is not one uniform
system, and it would be dishonest to
treat every field, every crop, and every
region the same. But it's critical to
understand here that unlike oil, there
are no strategic reserves of fertilizer
anywhere in the world. That's a system
without the ability to strongly pivot.
So when those shocks hit, as we're
seeing now, there are few to no options
or alternatives. Also, when that many
producers say they cannot afford all
fertilizer rates, the question is not
whether every field fails. The question
is whether enough farmers start making
smaller decisions that begin to add up.
A farmer does not have to stop planning
for production to fall. They can cut
fertilizer rates. They can prioritize
their best ground and pull back on
weaker ground. They can delay
applications. They can shift away from
higher input crops. And they can plant
something that costs less to grow, even
if it produces a different type of food
output. They can plant something that
they lack the fertilizer to fully
protect against disease or pests. Those
decisions planted on prayer and hope,
they make some sense farm by farm. But
across many farms, they can mean lower
yields, tighter feed supply, more
pressure on commodity prices, and higher
grocery costs later. This is a
fertilizer chain that right now has a
very, very weak link. This is farmers
struggling with decisions about how they
can get the numbers to still work. It's
a chain in a supply system that can
break right now, but you won't see the
impact until the growing season is over.
The harvest come in and the headlines
stir up panic in people. The delay is
the danger. By the time this shows up at
the grocery store, the decisions that
cause it are already months behind us.
Now, layer drought on top of this. We've
talked about that recently on this
channel as well. Fertilizer is a hidden
input problem. Drought is the force
multiplier. A crop under good conditions
may have more room to absorb a difficult
season, but a crop already under drought
stress has less room for error. If soil
moisture is low, if heat arrives during
critical growth windows, or if
irrigation water is limited, then
cutting fertilizer or delaying an
application becomes more consequential.
The US drought monitors late April
summary said rain continue to bypass
parts of the central and southern high
plains, leaving rangeand pastures and
winter wheat in desperate need of
moisture. That matters because wheat and
forage connect directly to household
food prices. USDA's May numbers already
show the strain. US wheat production is
projected around 1.56 billion bushels,
down sharply from last year with winter
wheat production forecast around 1.05
billion bushels. USDA's Economic
Research Service also reported that all
wheat planted acreage for the 2026 and
2027 marketing year is forecast 3% lower
than last year and at the lowest level
since records began in 1919. Wheat, it's
not just wheat. It's flour, it's bread,
it's pasta, it's cereal, it's animal
feed. It becomes part of the price
structure for foods household buy every
week. Hay and pasture matter for the
same reason. If drought hits pasture and
hay production, cattle producers may
have to buy more feed that reduce herds,
delay rebuilding, or carry higher costs.
That can affect beef and dairy for
months, not days. This is not a
prediction that every crop fails. Corn
and soybeans may be more mixed
nationally. Some regions may get rain at
the right time. Some producers may come
through the season better than others,
but this is a low margin season getting
squeezed from both sides. And it's
critical that we know about it and watch
it now before it's too late before the
story really hits the mainstream media
and people start to really get
concerned. Fertilizer costs are
squeezing what farmers can put into the
crop. Drought is squeezing what the crop
can become. Rising diesel prices are
increasing the cost of farming and
moving food. Farm finances are already
tight. And when those pressures stack
together, the food system doesn't have
to break for your grocery bill to get
worse. Think of it as a stress test, not
a forecast. If drought continues through
key growing windows, winter wheat and
hay are the categories I would watch
more closely. And if timely rain
returns, some of that pressure eases.
But rain cannot rewrite every decision
already made. And it cannot
retroactively fix every missed
application, every stressfilled or every
acre that was planted with less margin.
That is why looking only at today's
grocery shelves can be misleading. Full
shelves today do not tell you what is
happening upstream. They do not tell you
whether farmers are cutting fertilizer.
They do not tell you whether wheat
fields are slipping. They do not tell
you whether hay is getting tighter, and
they don't tell you whether livestock
producers are making decisions today
that affect meat and dairy prices later.
The shelves are the last place a food
crisis shows up. And by the time we see
it there, it's already too late for
most. The fields are really where it
starts, and this is where it reaches
your household. It reaches you through
flour, bread, pasta, cereal, tortillas,
crackers, and the simple staples that
people buy without really thinking too
much about them. It reaches you through
animal feed, which eventually affects
beef, dairy, eggs, and poultry. And it
reaches you through fresh vegetables,
where fertilizer, labor, fuel,
refrigeration, water, and transportation
all have to work together. It reaches
you through fewer sales, smaller
packages, higher prices, and less margin
in the grocery budget. And that is the
part that really gets lost when people
only ask whether shelves are full. A
food system, it can look functional and
still become harder for families to
afford. And that is why I do not like
waiting for panic to become visible. By
the time everyone agrees there's a
problem, the easiest and cheapest
options are usually gone. Now, that does
not mean panic buying, and it does not
mean running to the store and just
buying random food that your family is
never going to eat. It does not mean
assuming that we're going to go into
some Hollywood style empty shelf
collapse. It means that food
preparedness should move higher on your
list right now. The warning signs are
early, but they are real. Early is
exactly when preparedness works best.
The first thing I would do is build a
three-week pantry baseline of foods that
your household already eats. Not
specialty survival food first, not
expensive freeze-dried meals first.
Start with normal food that has shelf
life and fits your actual meals. That
means things like rice, beans, pasta,
oats, flour, canned tomatoes, canned
vegetables, canned fruit, canned
proteins, peanut butter, cooking oil,
salt, seasonings, coffee, tea, and shelf
stable comfort foods. your family will
actually rotate. Now, the second thing I
would do is pay attention to categories
that connect to this chain. Wheat
connects to flour, bread, pasta, and
cereal. Feed connects to beef, dairy,
eggs, and poultry. Fuel connects to
transportation, and almost everything
that has to be moved. Fresh vegetables
are vulnerable because they depend on
labor, fuel, water, fertilizer,
refrigeration, and timing. That does not
mean buy everything. It means notice
what your household actually uses and
slowly build more depth where you're
thin. Now, the third thing I would do is
protect cooking capability. Food storage
is less useful if you cannot cook it
during an outage or disruption. Having a
way to boil water, heat simple meals,
and cook basic stables if the power goes
out is important. That might be a camp
stove, a grill, propane, a rocket stove,
a solar oven, or another setup that fits
where you live. The fourth thing I would
do is add one small food production or
food stretching layer. That could be
sprouts. It could be micro greens. It
could be a few containers. It could be
herbs. It could be a small raised bed
garden. It could be learning to
dehydrate, can, ferment, or freeze what
you already buy on sale. You don't need
to become self-sufficient overnight.
That is not realistic for most
households. But every small layer in
that direction, it gives you more
margin. Here's the final point with all
of this. Preparedness is not about
perfectly predicting the future. It's
about recognizing pressure early enough
that you still have choices. If this
season improves, you will have stored
away food that you're going to eat
anyway. If prices move higher, you have
bought some of your household margin
early. If headlines finally catch up
later and everyone else starts reacting,
you're not starting from zero. That is
the calm, practical move. The grocery
store is a wrong place to look for for
the beginning of a food shock,
especially one that's already happening
right now. The better signals are
upstream. fertilizer, fuel, drought,
farmer decisions, crop conditions, feed
costs. That is where the story actually
starts. And by the time the public sees
it clearly, the easiest options may
already be gone. If you want to take the
next practical step, I would encourage
you to watch this video next. It walks
you through how to build a 3-week
emergency food supply without wasting
money or buying food that your family's
not going to eat. And for a deeper dive
on the cargo and container side of this,
I'll put an older but still relevant
video here on the side as well. That's a
big component in all of this. I'll put
them on the side of the screen and the
links in the description and comment
section below. If you have any thoughts
or feedback, feel free to post them.