Let's war game out your nightmare
scenario.
>> Day one, what happens?
>> Explosion at the Vector Lab in Russia.
And the reason that I chose that is why
I chose many plot points in the
scenarios. It happened once before in
2019. There was an explosion at the
Vector Lab. Vector is the BSL4 facility
where the a majority of the Soviet
bioweapons program occurred back during
the cold war.
>> Where is it? It's in just outside of
Novo, Sabirk, Siberia.
Okay. And so that may sound like the
middle of no nowhere. It's actually in a
small sort of village, a science city
called Colts Sovo, 8 miles from Novo
Sabir.
Siberia, it's a, you know, people are
like, wait, Siberia? Is that a real
place? It is. Okay, sounds far away.
It's the third largest city in Russia
after Moscow and St. Petersburg. 1.6
million people
and most BSL4 lab or many BSL4 labs by
the way are just right in the middle of
some of the largest popular population
centers in the world Tokyo South Africa
Atlanta right so that's how it begins I
have an explosion in the lab but unlike
what happened in 2019 where there was no
release as far as anyone knows there is
a release of a pathogen
and it's pneumonic plague and it's
genetically modified pneumonic plague
and I take the reader through the
military system of systems as as I have
spent my career working to understand
all that to see how the DoD reacts and
to see how and when the the president
will be told and to see how and when the
different agencies get involved and to
me that was just an extraordinary you
know learning curve and a sort of like
wo along the way with the number one
thing leading the charge that every sort
of expert in any of those agencies told
me was Annie if you can stop something
with 12 to 24 hours 12 24 to 36 hours if
you can stop it in his tracks you can
prevent a pandemic but of course because
biological weapons are illegal no one
wants to admit they have biological
weapons in their freezers and so
>> the host nation's immediately going to
try and cover it up or deny it.
>> And that is the natural response across
history to just if there is an unnatur
you know there was a famous case in
Serlo in Russia in 1979 where they were
weaponizing anthrax. They were milling
it into powder. Anthrax is an
interesting pathogen because it's called
a a deadend host. Right? So if you get
anthrax it's not transmissible. M
>> you get it in your lungs and you die but
you can't it's not airborne but it's
like a super killer and for whatever
reason it was sort of favored you know
pathogen of the cold war. We had an
anthrax program too. So there was a
there was some guy some you know
engineer in the garrison 19 where they
were milling the anthrax into tons of
weapons
>> forgot to change the air filter and it
got out and it killed a hundred people
in the town. M
>> and so the Soviet pullet burl you can
imagine the generals with their tall
boots came in and were like it's
contaminated meat
and it was you know it was an escape. It
was a lab escape and they denied it for
decades. Now it's known to be this kind
of a situation. So a lab leak, a lab
accident
is really a very dangerous situation.
Would the US be aware? Because
presumably they've got satellites that
see if an they they'll have an idea
about where potential labs are. Yes.
They'll be trying to track, hey, has
there been some sort of kinetic event
that's occurred there and
what's the process and what's going
>> You're absolutely right. I mean, with
nuclear weapons, we have satellites
parked in geosync over all the
facilities to look for that launch in
the first second that it happens. and we
see it and we know it. Lab, a lab
accident is different that it's a
different kind of explosion, but they
measure it from space. They know it's
not a ICBM launch. It's an explosion.
>> And the reason specifically why they
have eyes on the Vector Lab is not just
because it's like a super dangerous lab
that's known to probably have all the
bioweapons, but because it's just a few
miles from an ICBM facility in Novo
Sabirk. So the defense department
officials I interviewed said,
"Absolutely, Annie. We'd have eyes on
it. We'd know it and we'd call it in."
>> And but what do you do?
>> What do you do?
>> You know, you you reach out to Moscow
through your State Department people. I
spoke to State Department officials that
work in the business of counterp
proliferation. This is sort of like a
fancy word for saying trying to stop,
you know, biological weapons in their
tracks.
They would make an overture, no
response.
>> So now you're met with the do we drop
the nuke or not question.
>> You are met with that. And
>> because you only have 12 hours, 24 hours
probably at most.
>> Yeah. And that, you know, that is a
scenario that we've seen in Hollywood
movies. It's actually a could very
plausibly be a real scenario. But who's
going to do that? Because it's almost
certainly going to trigger a nuclear
exchange. Certainly not. Interesting to
think about the way that nuclear weapons
work, at least the old the old style
ones where you had uh well even the new
style ones, right? The the H bomb, you
have a trigger and then that is the
explosion. And in this you would have a
trigger before the trigger and the
trigger would be the bioweapon leak
>> that would cause the nuclear
>> attack which would also have its trigger
inside of a trigger.
>> Mhm. And then you're talking about
what's called a wicked problem.
A wicked problem in defense department
nomenclature is a problem that only
creates more problems
>> with its solution. And by the time you
deploy the air quote solution, new
problems have been created.
[laughter]
[gasps and snorts]
>> Okay? So if there's a leak, it becomes
really difficult to determine whether or
not a biological release has happened.
All of this machinery spins up.
>> Any host nation that's it and
dropped the ball doesn't want to admit
it.
>> Yep.
>> Day two.
>> What happens?
>> So, back up for a second because I'm
going to tell you some really
interesting intelligence collection
methods that are wild to think about.
So, we you know that so the the entire
intelligence community in the United
States at this point in a scenario is
now focused on did what is are people
dying? That's what they need to find
out.
>> Or what is the what is the Russian
government doing that makes us think
they know there's been a lab escape? And
so there's NSA listening to the SIG.
There's NRO looking down. So NRO is the
eyes. NSA is the ears.
>> What's NRO?
>> Uh the National Reconnaissance Office
organization. So that's space
satellites.
>> [gasps]
>> And then you have a really interesting
um collection component called mason
which is measurement and signal
signature intelligence
and it's sniffing.
So we have sensors
or maybe we have sensors I'll put it
that way in facilities.
I mean I'm talking like sewer pipes
maybe the walls on signs. You can put
amazing se sensor on anything that
moves. It could be on a drone. It could
be in a vehicle. It could be in a
sprinkler system. And that is sniffing
for a level.
And the intelligence officers are
looking for change. So when when the
signatures change and that would usually
have to do with chemicals that would be
used by the Russian government that
would be deployed to try to mitigate the
aerosol release.
>> Oh, that's interesting. What sort of
chemicals can you do to that try to
mitigate this?
>> I write them in the book. They're a
little hard to pronounce.
>> What What do they achieve?
>> Well, it's it's like a it's like a a dum
dum version of ammonia, right? So
imagine if if a pathogen spilled on this
table, you know, get out the am like you
would try and clean it up
>> with rubbing alcohol, ammonia. Well,
these are like industrial versions of
those drugs.
And you see spraying. You saw that. I
remember when COVID happened in Iran.
They were there were trucks going down
the street with hoses and and people
were just spraying, you know, government
people were spraying the streets with an
unknown chemical. We I don't know what
it was. I'm sure somebody in the, you
know, intelligence community knows. You
can do that in a totalitarianesque
country because
>> no one has a say. you can't do that here
in Austin. People would be like they
would freak out.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> But the in a place like Russia, you
could do that and that's being looked
at. So I take the reader through these
different, you know, you see this entire
billiondoll industry go into effect to
try and determine has there been a lab
leak? Are people dying?
>> Uhhuh. Uhhuh.
>> And if so, how and why? But the number
one thing that has to be identified is
what is the pathogen? Is it a virus? Is
it a bacteria? Very interesting
distinction that most people don't know.
A pathogen is a germ that will kill you.
Germs are germs. We all have germs. We
germs in our guts. But a pathogen is a
dangerous, deadly germ. Potentially
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