A viral claim is spreading that the
developing El Nino is a 1 in 12.5
millionyear event. That number doesn't
hold up, but what Noah is actually
forecasting may be more important than
the viral claim. El Nino is present and
already strengthening and Noah now sees
a very high probability that it reaches
very strong intensity. The bigger
question is not whether an internet
headline is exaggerated. It is how far
this event actually develops, what it
changes once those effects reach
individual regions, and whether any of
that should change what you are doing
right now. So, in this video, I want to
separate what is real from what is hype,
show you what the El Nino actually
changes, explain where it becomes a
preparedness problem, and then I'll tell
you whether this forecast has crossed my
own threshold for taking action on my
property. I'll also announce this week's
giveaway. So, let's jump in. If you're
new to this channel, my name is Chris
and on this channel, we discuss
emergency preparedness, aka prepping. El
Nino is no longer something that models
say might develop later. It's here. It's
strengthening. What we still don't know
is how far it's going to go and how
these effects will show up from one
region to another. And that uncertainty
is exactly why I think this deserves a
closer look. You're going to be hearing
a whole lot more about it as it
intensifies. So, let me cut through some
of the noise and get to what actually
matters for you. I'll also share some of
the practical steps I'm taking to
prepare. What's real and what's hype.
So, let's start off by doing a little
myth busting and separating fact from
fiction. The official forecast Noah is
reporting is that the ocean and
atmosphere are now behaving like a
coupled El Nino. Warm water is building
across the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific. And the trade winds
and tropical rainfall patterns are
responding. And that's no longer based
on a single warm patch of water or a
single computer model. Noah gives the
event a greater than 90% chance of
reaching what it calls very strong
intensity during the fall and winter. It
also gives it a 69% chance of becoming a
historic event, meaning it would exceed
the strength of the El Nino in Noah's
record since 1950. And that's a
legitimate signal. And frankly, it's
strong enough without creative math.
Super El Nino is just media
shortorthhand, not Noah's formal
category. And that matters because some
of the numbers being shared online, they
go well beyond what the forecast
actually says. The one in 12.5
millionear claim, it's a good example.
It takes a forecast, it compares it with
a relatively short modern data set, and
then extrapolates an enormous recurrence
interval from that. It also treats
overlapping three-month periods as if it
were independent events. So, in other
words, the chart can reasonably tell us
that this forecast is far outside the
recent range, but it cannot tell us that
this is literally a once in 12.5
million-year event. And we don't need
that number anyway. Noah's actual
forecast is serious enough. A very
strong El Nino is highly likely, and a
record setting event is now more likely
than not. And look, I'm no
mathematician. I don't even play one
here on YouTube, but there are several
problems with this viral claim. It
treats a model projection as though it
has already been measured. It tries to
estimate a multi-millionyear recurrence
from roughly four decades of data. It
also uses overlapping three-month
periods as though each were a completely
separate event. September through
November and October through December,
they share two of the same months.
They're not independent samples. The
data can reasonably say this forecast is
far outside the recent range. It can't
establish that this physical event
happens once every 12.5 million years.
So, we don't have to concern ourselves
too much with this misleading
projection. We just need to know the
inflated number. The official number is
serious enough. Noah says a very strong
event is highly likely and a record
setting event is now more likely than
not. Noah also says that stronger El
Nino conditions increase the likelihood
of familiar impacts, but they don't
guarantee them. what El Nino changes.
You may be asking yourself, what does El
Nino actually change? And you're on the
right track if you are. You do not need
a meteorology degree to understand the
basic mechanisms at work here. El Nino
is not one enormous storm headed toward
the United States. It is a shift in the
Pacific Ocean that changes the odds of
certain weather patterns. Now, under
typical conditions, trade winds push
warm surface water west toward
Australia. Colder, nutrient-rich water
rises near South America, supporting
fisheries. Warm water helps form clouds
and rain. And during El Nino, those
trade winds, they weaken. Warm water
spreads back toward the central and
eastern Pacific, and the main zone of
rainfall moves with it. And that shift
can bend storm tracks thousands of miles
away. Think of El Nino as a change in
the weather traffic pattern. It
redistributes heat, rain, and storms.
One region may receive needed rain while
another misses rainfall its farms and
reservoirs depend on. And this is why
northern states often experience warmer
drier weather while southern regions
face a higher risk of heavy rain. Cooler
than normal water is also developing in
part of the equatorial Atlantic. And
this is sometimes called Atlantic Nia.
It is a separate pattern in the Atlantic
and Pacific. They can influence one
another. But Atlantic cooling does not
control how strong El Nino becomes. Now,
the clearest contrast may appear in
hurricane activity. El Nino tends to
strengthen winds high over the Atlantic,
creating windshare that can disrupt
developing hurricanes. And this helps
explain why Noah favors a quieter
Atlantic season and a more active
eastern Pacific season. A quieter
Atlantic, it doesn't guarantee that the
East Coast will avoid a damaging storm.
And a more active eastern Pacific does
not mean California is going to take a
direct hit. Even a weakening tropical
system can carry enough moisture north
to cause flash flooding. The practical
point is simple. El Nino changes
regional odds. It doesn't provide a
local forecast. What matters is which
weather pattern reaches your area and
what weaknesses it finds when it gets
there. When does this hit home?
So, where does this become a
preparedness problem? Usually when the
weather finds a weakness you already
have. During a strong El Nino, the
southern United States often leans
wetter while parts of the north lean
warmer and drier. But those are seasonal
tendencies, not guarantees. You can
still get sudden cold intense storms,
wildfire conditions, or long dry
stretches. For you, the weak point might
be drainage, flooding, a low road, a
basement, wildfire risks, water
availability, reduced snowpack, or
higher power demand. And the important
question is not what does El Nino do. It
is what would unusual weather expose
where I live. And you might also hear
comparisons to the El Nino of 1877 and
1878 where severe drought and crop
failures contributed to a global famine
that killed tens of millions of people.
And that sounds alarming, but the
comparison, it needs context. El Nino
was only one part of that disaster.
Multiple climate patterns, years of
droughts, crop losses, weak food
reserves, poor transportation, and
inadequate response. They all compounded
the damage. Today, we can forecast
months ahead. We can move food quickly,
manage reservoirs, and respond to
regional shortages far better than the
world could in 1877. And that does not
make us immune to crop losses, higher
prices, or disruptions. It just means a
strong El Nino does not automatically
equal a repeat of history. And that's a
lesson from 1877. Weather can be the
trigger, but existing weaknesses
determine how bad the outcome becomes.
So, let's treat 1877 as a warning about
compounding failures, not as a
prediction that the outcome has already
been decided. What would change my
assessment is seeing several real
problems stack up at once. Drought, crop
losses, fishery declines, reservoir
stress, and transportation problems
across multiple regions. Am I changing
my plans?
So, has changed what I'm doing? Yes, but
probably not in the way that you think.
This forecast has crossed my threshold
for correcting weather vulnerabilities I
already know exist. It has not crossed
my threshold for making major purchases
or changing my entire preparedness plan
solely because someone is calling this a
super El Nino. And that distinction, it
does matter. I live in a high desert
environment, but some of the most
persistent damage on my property has
actually been caused by water. It's so
hot and dry here that the soil is
powdery and more like severely compacted
dust. And because of this, runoff moves
swiftly downhill from the barn toward
the main house. And it already has
caused problems on the main house and
damaged the foundation before we bought
it. And at the bottom of the property,
the wellhouse is subject to flooding
during heavy rain. And the resulting
moisture is damaging the wood. And you
may have seen on this channel that I had
to rebuild retaining wall in part
because of what the water was doing on
the property. I also have been looking
at where I need to install French drains
to intercept that runoff and move it
safely away from the house and the well
equipment. But why all the water damage
and problems? After all, again, my area
only gets about 12 to 13 inches of rain
per year. And most of that falls within
a 4 to 5month period. and the El Nino
events in 2018 and 2023 double the
annual rainfall. I've also had Len Nino
years around 20 ines of rain and El Nino
years that brought drought where I live.
Look, it's a numbers game for sure, but
with the odds leaning this heavily, I
would rather use a lead time to fix a
problem that has already shown itself.
This forecast moves at work higher on my
project list. Southern California has an
elevated odd of wetter winter and heavy
rainfall that will arrive in a few
concentrated storms rather than falling
gently across several months. If this
forecast weakens the work that we do
now, it's not wasted. But if it
continues to strengthen and we begin to
see verified crop losses, fisheries
problems, reservoir stress,
transportation disruptions, or several
regional failures stacking up at the
same time, my assessment is going to
change. And if that happens, I'll tell
you. And that's really the point of
preparedness. We don't need perfect
certainty before we act. We just need
enough information to recognize where
there are vulnerabilities, enough
judgment to avoid overreacting, and
enough lead time to make good decisions
while we still have options. So, don't
let the viral headlines that you're
seeing online scare you. But don't let
the fact that some of the hype is
exaggerated convince you that there's
nothing worth paying attention to
either. Find the weakness that weather
is most likely to expose where you live
and fix one thing before you need it.
What you should do,
the key for you is to know what the
likely weather is going to be in your
specific area. So, you want to
understand the oscillations and how a
sharp swing in a different direction or
sustained periods of extreme heat, rain,
drought, or whatever was going to impact
your area in the surrounding region. I
would begin by identifying the most
likely weather shift in my own region.
Don't stop at El Nino means rain or El
Nino means heat. Look at Noah's seasonal
outlook and your local National Weather
Service information and determine
whether your area currently leans
wetter, drier, warmer, or toward greater
tropical storm influence. Then walk
around your home with that shift in
mind. Follow where water would travel.
Then check gutters, drains, low spots,
sump pumps, roof penetrations, trees,
fencing, exterior power, and anything
that depends on refrigeration. Consider
what would be affected first by prolong
heat, an ice storm, or a multi-day
outage. And correct one weakness that
has already given you evidence, a drain
that backs up, a room that overheats, a
generator that has not been tested, or
important documents stored where water
can reach them. It doesn't require a
record setting Elnito to become a
problem. We have an extreme weather
guide that can help you work through
this without trying to prepare for every
possibility at once. And I'm going to
link to it in the description and pin
comment section below. What I'm watching
Noah puts a chance of a very strong El
Nino above 90% and I'm taking that
seriously. I'm also watching whether
it's 69% chance of a historic event
rises or retreats and whether those
ocean conditions begin producing
measurable regional impacts. I'm
watching the regional temperature and
precipitation outlooks as winter gets
closer. I'm also watching eastern
Pacific tropical activity, Atlantic wind
shear, updated harvest forecasts,
fishery reports, reservoir conditions,
and whether commodity markets begin
responding to verified losses instead of
forecasts. If you want to know when
those things get close to a tipping
point, you're going to want to subscribe
to this channel. Those are the signals
that would really change my assessment.
A warmer ocean forecast alone does it
prompt me to change my food plan, but
verified yield losses across several
major growing regions, it might. A
wetter seasonal outlook does not mean my
house is going to flood. But an
atmospheric river arrives after the
storm drains and channels are arrayed
saturated could require immediate
action. And that's the distinction to
remember through all of this. Whether it
might be the trigger, but your current
and existing vulnerabilities, they
multiply the damage. What would I not
do?
I would not treat 1877 as a forecast for
2026, though you're probably going to
hear that year mentioned more often in
the coming months. This is a very fluid
development, but it is leaning
undeniably in one direction. And I would
not assume every region will experience
the same weather. I would not make an
expensive purchase solely because of a
viral chart and I wouldn't assume a
quieter Atlantic means the Gulf and East
Coast are safe. I would not turn early
agricultural stress into a guaranteed
national shortage. The evidence supports
checking the vulnerabilities most
exposed to a shift in seasonal patterns.
And it doesn't support pretending that
we know the exact outcome months before
it arrives. We do have pretty heavy odds
leaning in one direction. So, we need to
pay attention to that lopsided indicator
and what it really means for us in the
region that we live. Giveaway.
This week's giveaway prize is a 72-hour
food supply. All you have to do to
participate in the giveaway is just
simply comment on the video, give it a
thumbs up, and complete the form linked
in the description section below.
Completing the form is required so that
we can randomly select and contact a
winner. Information is only accessible
to our team here at City Prepping. So,
congrats to our last video giveaway
winner of the backpack camp stove,
Eugeneo Fresquez. I'll be reaching out
to you shortly to get that sent to you.
When I do these Friday news segments, I
like to end by trying to put some things
in perspective. Um, I think this is
where preparedness really matters. Not
when we know exactly what's going to
happen, but when we don't. In
uncertainty, it really tends to push
people in one of two directions. Some
people'll overreact. Others will put it
off because nothing has happened yet.
And I don't think either response really
helps much. You don't need to go out
this weekend and just spend a bunch of
money. You don't need to prepare for
every disaster someone on the internet
can come up with. But I do think it is
worth looking around your home and
asking one simple question. If we had a
few days of really bad weather, what
would give us trouble first? Maybe it's
drainage. Maybe it's losing power in
extreme heat or cold. Maybe there's a
tree you've been, you know, really
meaning to deal with, a generator you
haven't tested in two years, or a road
near your home that floods every time
you get heavy rain. Whatever it is, I
would encourage you to deal with it
while things are normal. And that's the
advantage we have right now. We have
time. The stores are open, the roads are
clear. You can research something,
compare prices, fix it properly, or talk
through a plan with your family without
doing it under pressure. And maybe this
El Nino does turn out to be historic.
Maybe where you live it ends up being
mostly a non-event and we simply don't
know yet. But sooner or later
something's going to test the system
around you. Whether that's a storm, an
outage, a heat wave, a wildfire, extreme
cold, whatever is the most common where
you live. And the goal is not to try to
predict everything perfectly. The goal
is just to be a little harder to catch
off guard. And if you can use a warning
we have now to fix one problem before it
becomes your problem, I think that's
time that's well spent. So, tell me in
the comments about the worst storm that
you have lived through and one weakness
it taught you to check before the next
one. Maybe it was drainage, backup
power, heating, cooling, insurance
trees, or transportation. Your
experience may help someone else spot a
problem before they have to learn the
same lesson. I'd like to leave you with
a practical guidance that you can use
without any of the hype. If extreme heat
and summer outages are the greater
threat where you live, watch how to
survive a summer power outage and stay
cool. If winter storms and extreme cold
are your concern, watch how to survive a
winter power outage and stay warm. I'll
link to them on the side of the screen
and in the comments and description
section below. Both are going to help
you prepare before an outage becomes
dangerous. As always, stay safe out
there.