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[@DwarkeshPatel] Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise

· 11 min read
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@DwarkeshPatel - "Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise"

Link: https://youtu.be/RH_ycZYH8-s

Short Summary​

This video analyzes the historical relationship between Russia and China, arguing that Russia has consistently acted to weaken China to prevent it from becoming a great power neighbor, leveraging tactics like strategic communication, territorial grabs, and manipulation of internal conflicts. The speaker suggests that the current "bromance" is unlikely to endure, especially with China's growing power and Russia's overextension in Ukraine, potentially leading to future conflict or, at least, China dominating the relationship.

Key Quotes​

Here are 5 direct quotes from the transcript that I found particularly insightful:

  1. "The Russians repeatedly derail the rise of China by scripting the Chinese to do things that are remarkably detrimental to Chinese interests, but pretty good for Russian interests. It takes the Chinese a long time to figure it out." This highlights a pattern of exploitation in the relationship, framing Russia as a manipulator.

  2. "So if you want to disintegrate the neighbors in order to delay their rise, well then you fund all sides of their civil wars and any side in between because you just want them to go at it." This is a cynical but direct explanation of how continental empires maintain dominance by destabilizing their neighbors.

  3. "There are so many neighbors you have never heard of because they've disappeared from the pages of history, courtesy of the Russians." This starkly illustrates the long-term, often brutal consequences of Russian expansionism.

  4. "There's also from being on the plains of Eurasia where, throughout history, people have invaded you. So you have an established paradigm of how you deal with other people that is deep-seated over thousands of years." This quote provides a historical perspective on the Russian mindset.

  5. "I am more afraid of our own blunders than of the enemy's devices." This Pericles quote, used at the end, is a powerful warning about the dangers of internal mistakes, especially in the context of international relations.

Detailed Summary​

Okay, here's a detailed summary of the YouTube video transcript, presented in bullet points:

I. Introduction & Terminology:

  • The speaker, whose expertise is in Russo-Chinese relations, addresses concerns about a potential enduring alliance between China and Russia.
  • She argues that the relationship is more complex and perhaps not as solid as it appears.
  • Terminology: Uses "Russia" to refer to the various historical periods (Czarist, Soviet, modern) to show that Russia is the enduring force, not just the USSR. History is the database used to speculate the future of these countries' relationships.

II. Rules for Continental Empires:

  • Continental empires like Russia and China follow certain rules for survival due to their many neighbors.
  • Avoid two-front wars: Focus on dealing with one neighbor at a time.
  • No great power neighbors: Take out or neutralize potential rivals on your borders.
  • Destabilize rising powers, ingest failing ones, and create buffer zones.
  • These strategies often lead to surrounding oneself with dysfunctional states. The speaker questions whether China and Russia are unlucky with the dysfunctional places that surround them, or if they are complicit.
  • No enduring alliances: Neighbors eventually recognize the hegemonic power offers only long-term trouble.
  • Overextension is common: Both Russia and China have a history of expanding too far, leading to implosions.

III. Mid-19th Century to Mid-20th Century: Russia Strong, China Weak:

  • China and Russia discovered each other relatively late in their histories.
  • The speaker focuses on the period from the mid-19th century.
  • During this time, Russia frequently capitalized on China's weakness.
  • Examples of Russian Actions Derailing China's Rise:
    • Opium Wars:
      • While China was dealing with internal rebellions (Taiping and Nian Rebellions), Russia offered to mediate with Britain and France.
      • In exchange, China ceded large swaths of territory in Central Asia and the Pacific coastline via the Treaties of Aigun (1858) and Peking (1860).
    • First Sino-Japanese War:
      • China asked Russia to counterbalance Japan after Japan's victory and demands for territory on the Liaodong Peninsula.
      • Russia, with France and Germany (Triple Intervention), forced Japan to back down.
      • Russia then took the territory for itself.
      • Other European powers and Japan subsequently carved out concession areas throughout China, undermining Chinese sovereignty.
    • Karakhan Manifesto:
      • After the Bolsheviks came to power, they initially promised to return all lands from "unequal treaties" in the Karakhan Manifesto of 1919.
      • However, the offer was scaled back as the Bolsheviks gained strength.
      • Russia didn't return concession areas until the mid-20th century, long after Western powers had. The speaker pointed out that the Russian concession areas were the largest of any country.
      • The Karakhan Manifesto created the myth of Sino-Soviet friendship.
    • First United Front:
      • Russia aided the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang) through the Whampoa Military Academy, providing arms, expertise, and funding.
      • The price was the inclusion of the Communists in the Nationalist Party (United Front).
      • This coincided with a power struggle in Russia between Stalin and Trotsky.
      • Stalin insisted the Communists remain in the United Front.
      • Chiang Kai-shek (Nationalist leader) then massacred the Communists in Shanghai, forcing Mao to adopt a rural strategy.
      • Stalin used this as an example to prove that revolution in one country works better than world revolution, thereby defeating Trotsky in the internal power struggle.
    • Manchurian Railway:
      • After the Russo-Japanese War, Japan controlled the southern half of the railway net in Manchuria.
      • Zhang Xueliang (Chinese warlord's son) tried to regain the railways from Russia in 1929.
      • Russia deployed over 100,000 troops and crushed him, keeping the railways.
    • Second United Front:
      • In the 1930s, Stalin feared a two-front war with Germany and Japan (Anti-Comintern Pact).
      • He pushed the Nationalists and Communists to unite against Japan (Second United Front).
      • Stalin's plan worked, as Japan escalated its aggression in China, preventing a Japanese-German attack on Russia.
      • China bore the brunt of the fighting and suffered millions of casualties, further delaying its rise.
    • Yalta Agreement and Post-WWII Exploitation:
      • Russia entered the war against Japan in the final weeks of WWII (August Storm).
      • They seized Manchuria but also dismantled and took away its industrial base, to Russia.
      • Took 640,000 Japanese POWs for slave labor
      • They also took the Northern Islands (still disputed).
      • Stalin also detached Outer Mongolia from the Chinese sphere of influence, a territory larger than all US territory east of the Mississippi.
      • The speaker acknowledged that Russia gave Japanese stockpiled military equipment to the Communists, and trained them how to use it which helped in the Communist victory.
      • However, Mao figured out something was up.

IV. Mid-20th Century to Present: China Strong, Russia Weak:

  • Korean War:
    • After the Communist victory in China, Stalin advised Mao to halt at the Yangtze River, wanting to weaken China and keep a divided state. Mao ignored him.
    • After China intervened in the Korean War, Stalin saw it as an opportunity to weaken the US and delay the rise of China by fighting to the last Chinese in Korea, tying China to Russia.
  • After Stalin died, Mao figured out that Russia did not want a strong China and began to have growing gripes.
  • Sino-Soviet Split:
    • Multiple Factors: China's rise and Russia's decline.
    • China got its own atomic weapon in 1964.
    • Mao then demanded the return of "stolen territory" from Russia.
    • Border War over Zhenbao/Damansky Island in the Amur River.
    • Russia considered nuking China, which led to a reshuffling of adversaries.
    • China and Russia became primary adversaries to each other, allowing the US to play a "swing" role.
    • Nixon and Mao saw ganging up on Russia to be a good idea.
    • China Under Deng Xiaoping: economic reforms led to double digit growth rates.
  • Russia's Decline:
    • From the mid-70s, they went into terminal decline. Soviet growth rates were 1-2% less than the U.S. growth rates.
    • Brezhnev's non-performing piles across the Third World. Expensive, without the economy to pay for it.
    • Budget relied up to 55% on oil or energy revenues.
    • Gorbachev's reforms to save communism ruined the sclerotic patient. Loss of empire in Eastern Europe and the loss of the constituent republics of the Soviet Union.

V. Russia's Imperialism and National Identity:

  • Russians agree that their country should always be a great power, not measured by wealth, but in vast territorial extent and ability to run roughshod over others.
  • "We need vast territorial extent to be secure."
  • Russia's existential threat to its neighbors.
  • Examples include Poland's partitions and being moved 200 kilometers to the West.
  • Russian template for bloc building by leveraging turmoil that wars cause. They're controlling the power ministries.
  • Big Lie: Russians are somehow nice guys.
  • Ideologies: Under the Czars, it was the Third Rome. Under the communists, they spread communism. However, under Putin, they are not marketable ideologies.

VI. China's Big Ideas and Legitimacy

  • The Chinese have big ideas about civilization itself.
  • Pillars of legitimacy include ethical rule, economic prosperity, and territorial expansion.
  • China is facing a conundrum: How do you justify one-party rule if you no longer believe the economic theories it is based on?

VII. The Danger of Hot Wars and Misidentifying Primary Adversaries:

  • The Soviet addendum to the rules for continental empire: No hot wars. The Korean and Vietnam wars being great, with Americans tearing each other's eyes out about them.
  • Putin comes to power on a diet of hot wars. Chechen war. War with Georgia. Invasion of Ukraine in 2014, which resulted in good ratings.
  • If the great powers go at it, they might well superglue.
  • The speaker emphasizes that a major error is misidentifying your primary adversary. Leaders need to ponder this.

VIII. Prospects of the Bromance and a Closing Warning:

  • Barring World War III, the speaker believes the current China-Russia relationship is not truly aligned.
  • The West and others need to manage things correctly, learn from the "fraught" history, and let them take care of each other.
  • Rather than trade wars, we should maximize prosperity, so we get stronger while they are busy in these wealth-destroying wars.
  • Putin is doing empire in the age of nationalism, it's a non-starter, dumping ordnance on Ukraine, leaving Siberia wide open.
  • Xi Jinping now holds all of the cards. China has nine times the population and nine times the GNP of Russia. The question isn't whether the bromance will last forever, but when it is going to end.
  • Nicholas II, and his family ended up shot in a Siberian basement, because he focused on an irrelevant theater in those days. I don't know how it's going to go for Vladimir Putin on all of this.
  • Our leaders truly need to ponder this before they wreck all of us, themselves included.

IX. Q&A Session Highlights:

  • Ideology in the Sino-Soviet Split: More about conflicting empires and the desire to be "king of the roost"
  • Stalin's Decisions: More about geopolitics than pure communism; wanted to manage the world. His version of communism; the Russians should run it forever.
  • Consequences of Stalin's Death: Would have made Sino-Soviet split worse.
  • Lessons From the Chinese Civil War: The Chinese should not be taken lightly.
  • Stalin's strategic abilities: Had a very high EQ. multiple security agencies with overlapping jurisdictions. He has better information than anybody else.
  • The future outcome for Xi Jinping and Putin is not clear.
  • China has a lot of money; it can just pay for Russian oil and water.
  • Is there a risk of North Korea and China going to war? No, not in a position that is draining on China.
  • How Russia uses China in war: Russia uses China the way that the US used Russia.

I hope this detailed breakdown is helpful! Let me know if you have any other questions.