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[@RenaissancePeriodization] The End of Fitness - Gene Editing for Huge Muscles Is Coming

· 6 min read
[@RenaissancePeriodization] Summarizer
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@RenaissancePeriodization - "The End of Fitness - Gene Editing for Huge Muscles Is Coming"

Link: https://youtu.be/9-MUfUiA808

Short Summary​

Here's a breakdown of the YouTube transcript:

  • Number one takeaway/action item: Consider re-evaluating your career or business plans, especially if they are heavily reliant on basic body recomposition personal training in the long term.

  • Executive Summary: The speaker predicts that within the next 5-15 years, advancements in drugs and genetic engineering will largely eliminate the need for traditional exercise for achieving basic fitness goals (fat loss, muscle gain). This will lead to a decline in big box gyms and a shift in the fitness industry towards specialized training for aesthetics or sports performance.

Key Quotes​

Here are five quotes from the video transcript that represent valuable insights and strong opinions:

  1. "Fitness in the way that we understand it has something like 10 years left to live." - This is the central thesis of the video and a strong statement about the future of the fitness industry.
  2. "This genetic revolution will allow almost everyone that wants it to have the strength and aesthetics that they like overall with precisely zero training." This highlights the revolutionary potential of genetic engineering on physical fitness.
  3. "Big box gyms are going to go out of business like crazy maybe before but sure as shit during this revolution." This provides a specific prediction about the impact on a particular segment of the fitness industry.
  4. "If I were a young high school student, early college, and I was planning on what to go into, I would pivot to learning how to manage people's psychology, to coaching running, to coaching cycling, to coaching dancing, kickboxing, grappling, surfing, etc. " - A recommendation is made to those starting their careers about where they should apply themselves in the fitness world.
  5. "For very many people, not me and you, for very many people, exercise and getting jacked is a chore. We could just just eliminate that chore, it'll be unbelievable." - This acknowledges that exercise is not universally enjoyed and highlights the potential benefits of eliminating it as a necessity for achieving fitness goals.

Detailed Summary​

Here's a detailed summary of the YouTube video transcript, excluding advertisements, presented in bullet points:

  • Thesis: Fitness as we understand it (specifically hypertrophy and fat loss achieved through traditional exercise) has approximately 10 years left due to advancements in genetic engineering and drugs that mimic exercise benefits.

  • The Science Behind the Prediction:

    • Body changes from exercise result from genes signaling the production of proteins.
    • Example: Resistance training lowers myostatin (muscle growth inhibitor) production, leading to muscle growth.
    • Mechanical tension and fatigue byproducts trigger protein signaling cascades, ultimately leading to muscle growth.
    • Theoretically, you can bypass mechanical tension and directly activate the end of the molecular cascade for muscle growth.

  • The Near Future (5 Years): Drugs Mimicking Exercise

    • A "tsunami" of drugs that modify proteins involved in exercise is approaching.
    • Examples: Drugs like aceloprag and geretus mab already in testing modify protein activity at receptors to modulate exercise responses like mitochondrial proliferation, fat burning, and muscle growth.
    • People with lower-tier fitness goals (lose a few pounds, gain a little muscle, improve health) will no longer need the gym. They can achieve their desired fitness through pills and engage in enjoyable physical activities like hiking and biking.
    • Those seeking extreme results will still need traditional exercise to supplement the drug effects.

  • The Further Future (5-10 Years): Genetic Engineering

    • Genetic engineering will become more common, even for non-disease "upgrades."
    • People will be able to alter their DNA to mimic the effects of constant exercise.
    • Genetic modification can provide the benefits of elite genetics without needing to train.
    • AI will accelerate the discovery and development of gene editing technologies.

  • Myostatin Inhibition Example:

    • Deactivating the myostatin gene in animals (myostatin "knockouts") leads to extreme muscle growth without training.
    • Examples of myostatin knockout animals shown (mice, greyhound).

  • How It Works: Why go through the molecular cascades triggered by exercise when you can directly alter genes to express the necessary proteins? Tackling the problems of identifying which genes to target and how to deliver the vectors and ensuring there are no side effects on other body systems is a solvable problem.

  • Will Fitness Disappear Entirely?

    • No, specialized hypertrophy training will still exist for targeted muscle growth (e.g., bigger arms but not a larger chest and back).
    • Weightlifting and combat sports will continue to require technique and practice.
    • These advances will have significant impacts on Olympic competitions.
    • Skill-based activities like climbing, cycling, and boxing will remain popular because they're fun and skill-based, and genetic modifications can enhance performance in these activities.

  • The Fate of Commercial Gyms and Personal Trainers:

    • General hypertrophy-focused lifting may decline.
    • "Average" gym-goers (those just maintaining a decent physique) may disappear.
    • Hardcore hypertrophy and strength gyms will survive.
    • Personal trainers need to shift their focus to managing people's psychology, coaching running, cycling, etc., instead of primarily focusing on body recomposition. A job in fitness training to help general people get in shape is becoming a solved problem and not a good career move.

  • Investment Advice (Informal):

    • Don't invest heavily in big box gyms.
    • Consider investing in hardcore gyms.

  • Caveats & Timeframe Adjustments:

    • Regulation could stall the timeline (5-10 year delay) if gene editing causes adverse reactions.
    • Advancements in AI could accelerate the timeline, with genetic upgrades becoming widespread as early as 2030.
    • AI drastically speeds up drug development, potentially leading to a cascade of biologics, small molecule drugs, and then gene editing solutions in rapid succession.
    • Existing drugs currently in the pipeline were being developed without AI so expect a much shorter timeframe with AI's assistance.
    • The progression could be vinyl -> 8 track tapes -> regular tapes -> CDs -> mp3s -> streaming, which got faster with each advancement.

  • Ethical and Social Considerations:

    • No one will be forced to undergo genetic modifications.
    • A "natty" (unmodified) fitness industry will likely exist.
    • The acceptance of genetic upgrades will depend on whether people view them as safe and beneficial, similar to cell phones.

  • Is This Good or Bad? Mixed Bag.

    • Bad: Decline of commercial gym culture, trainers may have to retrain
    • Good: Free up time for other valuable activities (helping others, social interaction), eliminates exercise as a chore for many.
    • This can lead to unbelievable new heights in skills such as Brazilian jiu-jitsu.