Skip to main content

[@CityPrepping] You Haven’t Felt It Yet

· 29 min read

@CityPrepping - "You Haven’t Felt It Yet"

Link: https://youtu.be/AgJzGAp-0_A

Duration: 24 min

Short Summary

Chris of City Prepping discusses how the Strait of Hormuz oil supply disruptions, emergency oil releases from the IEA (400M barrels) and US (172M barrels), and compounding tariff burdens are converging to strain households. The episode examines social unrest indicators including recent arson cases in Ontario, California and the Luigi Manion case as symptoms of eroding social cohesion under economic pressure. Chris recommends incremental preparedness steps—focusing on one weakness per week—while maintaining situational awareness and building a 3-week food supply as foundational steps.

Key Quotes

  1. "We cannot drill our way out of a global affordability crisis in real time. That pain still comes home." (00:07:00)
  2. "Food in the pantry is not just disaster insurance. It's a hedge against inflation and a buffer against a bad month." (00:08:08)
  3. "That's why I keep saying that preps are not just for earthquakes, floods, or blackouts. They're also stabilizers." (00:08:35)
  4. "Current estimates put the 2026 household burden anywhere from roughly $1,300 to more than $2,500 a year, depending on how it is measured." (00:09:52)
  5. "The strain, it's not only financial, it's social and emotional as well." (00:15:03)

Detailed Summary

Oil Supply Disruptions and Global Response

The Strait of Hormuz remains significantly disrupted with tanker traffic far below pre-war levels, major shipping firms do not trust the route, and experts state infrastructure damage may take weeks to months to fully repair even if the military situation improves. Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining if conditions do not improve, while Australia by mid-April had roughly 31 days of diesel, 38 days of petrol, and 28 days of jet fuel, with hundreds of stations running dry. The International Energy Agency coordinated a 400 million barrel emergency oil release in March—the largest in its history—while the United States released 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve. US oil output is already near its expected maximum range, and domestic refineries are configured around specific crude slates, meaning US production cannot quickly offset global supply disruptions.

Tariff Impact on Households

The speaker identifies tariffs as a "hidden tax" layered on top of already elevated food prices, higher utility costs, and ongoing fuel pressure. Current estimates place the 2026 household tariff burden at roughly $1,300 to more than $2,500 per year depending on measurement methodology. Tariffs raise costs for steel, aluminum, control systems, valves, sensors, and critical infrastructure components, with costs passed through to consumers. Lower and middle income households face disproportionate impact because they have less budget flexibility to absorb additional cost increases. The speaker argues US oil flows to the highest global bidder, pricing American households out of their own resources.

Social Unrest Indicators

A worker at the Kimberly Clark warehouse in Ontario, California allegedly set fire while filming himself discussing pay and inventory grievances. Days later, investigators examined a separate arson case where a man allegedly set multiple fires inside an Ontario mall while ranting about low wages. Luigi Manion, accused of murdering United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York, became a symbol of anti-corporate rage for some, reflecting rising cultural resentment seeking targets. The speaker argues that when acts of rage receive heavy media attention, they can provide language, imagery, or permission to other unstable individuals already feeling angry or hopeless, enabling copycat behavior.

Compounding Household Pressures

The speaker identifies three converging problems affecting households: rising energy costs, tariffs, and growing social strain. Prolonged economic pressures including high fuel prices, expensive food, tariffs, rising insurance, layoffs, and stagnant wages erode patience, trust, and social cohesion while making society more brittle. The speaker states prolonged economic and social pressure changes how people interpret the world around them, wearing thin patience, eroding trust, and growing cynicism. Ireland has experienced fuel protests due to ongoing energy supply pressures.

Preparedness Recommendations

The speaker recommends building margin and buffer through preparedness—stocking supplies, strengthening systems, and maintaining options—when facing tightening household pressures. A Navy SEAL shared that his SEL training strategy for maintaining sanity was focusing exclusively on the next task directly in front of him rather than attempting to control surrounding circumstances. The speaker advises prioritizing one weakness at a time—whether food storage, water, or another system—and reducing it to build incremental buffer and strengthen the household. He recommends building a 3-week food supply as the single best foundational prepping step viewers can easily implement immediately. The speaker maintains a calm on-camera presence and credits his level-headedness to processing concerns through daily conversations with friends.

Full Transcript

Show transcript

Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so uh uh jet fuel left. >> So, I ordered something and if I don't have a check for $63, I can't receive it because of tariffs. >> Mhm. >> This is wild. >> I know. It is wild. I'm sorry. >> All you had to do was pay us enough to live. >> In this video, we're going to look at three pressures that all land in the same place, your household. First, the oil shock that I don't think a lot of people have really fully felt yet. Then the hidden tax of tariffs which are quietly making life more expensive and finally the social strain that starts building when people feel squeezed long enough. I also want to show you why preparedness is still the answer in these situations because prepping is really how you build margin stability and options at home before the pressure gets worse. I'm also going to show you what I'm personally doing to prepare for what's still coming our way. And we also have another giveaway in this video. So stick around for that. If you're new here to this channel, my name is Chris and on this channel we discuss emergency preparedness, aka prepping. One of the reasons I do these weekly updates is that most households, they don't get knocked off balance by just one giant event all at once. More often, pressure it builds in layers. Uh fuel gets more expensive, food gets more expensive, bills, uh they just get harder to absorb and people they still they get more frustrated and before long something that once felt manageable no longer does. We often think of prepping as getting ready for just one big disaster and that's still a huge part of it. But in times like these, preparedness also becomes a stabilizing force in a world where smaller problems, even ones happening on the other side of the globe, they keep compounding at the household level in your own home. And that's why I want to walk through these stories today because they all point to the same bigger problem. Life is getting tighter and households that build margin early are going to be in a much stronger position than those who wait. So, let's jump in. Brace for it. Let me start with the pressure I don't think a lot of households have really fully felt yet. The first shock from this oil crisis happening in the straight of her moose has hit the headlines in the pumps and prices weeks ago. And that was the initial spike, the jab, if you will. But there is a much harder punch that's still winding up and I think it's heading our way. It's likely to cause more pain than the first jolt. And we saw the panic, the price spikes, the warnings, and the scramble by governments to calm markets. But what I want to focus on here is the second blow because that is usually the one that hits the household the hardest. And that is the phase where the story really stops sounding like a foreign policy problem and it starts showing up in your gas tank, your grocery bill, your utility bill, your shipping costs, and the general cost of keeping life moving. That second blow is what I think is now beginning to rotate in. And I think many people are still treating this like the crisis is mostly about whether the straight or hummus is technically open or technically closed. And I think that's too simplistic. The system it's not coming back to normal. Tanker traffic remains far below pre-war levels. Major shipping firms still do not trust the route. And even where some movement has resumed, it is happening under degraded conditions with added risk, added cost, and added delay. And experts have been clear that even if the military situation improves, shipping doesn't just snap back overnight. It can take weeks or months to normalize. And in some cases, infrastructure damage in the region may take several months, even years to get back to full production. And that really matters because reserves and emergency releases, they can often soften the first blow, but they don't restore normal. In March, the International Energy Agency coordinated a 400 million barrel emergency release, the largest in its history. And even that is still functioning more like a tourniquet than a cure. The United States alone is releasing 172 million barrels which pulls our strategic petroleum reserve down even further while leaving the core problem unresolved. In Europe is already warning about severe jet fuel stress with some officials discussing only weeks of cushion if conditions don't improve. Now, in parts of Asia, countries that were once estimated to have roughly a month of supply in mid-March are now another 30 days deeper into this crisis, and they're burning through whatever buffer they had left. And these measures, they buy time, but that's all they do. They don't reopen the straight in any meaningful way. They don't restore normal tanker traffic. They do not replace the ordinary flow of oil, gas, diesel, and refined products through one of the most important choke points on Earth. They are stop gaps. And when a system is running on stop gaps, you should understand that the pain it has not passed. It has only been postponed. That's why I think many people are reading this moment incorrectly. They see stock shelves, moving traffic in a country that still looks functional on the surface and they assume maybe the worst is already behind us. And I don't think that is a right read at all. I think we're moving from the shock phase into the transmission phase. And that's when that first spike starts showing up in ordinary life. the cost of producing, moving, packaging, and selling goods, it begins to climb. And before long, those added costs, they start getting passed through the system. And what households feel is usually not just one dramatic break all at once. It's a slower squeeze where life just keeps getting more expensive. And each new increase piles on top of the last. And if you want to see what later stage pain looks like, look overseas. Australia is one of the clearest warning signs right now. By midappril, it was down to roughly 31 days of diesel cover, 38 days of petrol or gas, and 28 days of jet fuel, with hundreds of stations already running dry, and farmers weighing whether they can even afford to plant. Now, in Europe, airports and refiners are openly warning about fuel stress and tighter supply. Ireland has seen fuel protests. And another prepper friend of mine you might be familiar with, Survival Lily, she's been documenting what it looks like from the ground from a European preer's perspective. housing strain, food strain, diesel and fertilizer pressure, people working longer for less margin in the sense that daily life is getting harder to hold together. Does any of that sound familiar? She's not describing a theory. What she's describing is what it feels like when an energy shock drags on long enough to distort ordinary life. And these are not isolated oddities. They are early signs of what happens when supply stays constrained, reserves get drawn down, and households start absorbing the damage. No matter how much we talk about drilling here at home, we're still tied to a global market. I think you need to understand this point. The United States shell output is already near its expected range. And even when prices rise, what happens is producers, they can't suddenly flood the market with enough oil to replace a distribution of this size. Wells, they take time. Infrastructure, that takes time, and refining does as well. And our refineries are configured around specific crude slates. And remember, just because it is drilled from the ground here, it doesn't mean that it's going to offset our supply. We are in a global oil market. So our oil here, it flows to the highest bidder. That benefits other buyers more than American households. We're being priced out of our own resources. And somebody profits and somebody pays. So yes, we can export more, reroute more tankers, and try to squeeze more out domestic production, but we cannot drill our way out of a global affordability crisis in real time. That pain still comes home. So what do you think? Do you think the worst of this oil shock is already here, or is the hardest part still ahead? What are you doing now to make your household less exposed to rising fuel, food, and utility costs? Let us know in the comments below this video. What does this mean to us? It means preparedness is not just about the dramatic emergency. Sometimes the emergency is that life just keeps getting tighter month after month and your household. It has less room to absorb the next hit. We are watching that happen in other parts of the world right now as reserves run down and economies grind under the string. And that's the bigger picture. What matters to us is what happens when the same pressure starts showing up at the household level here at home. And that's why I keep saying that preps are not just for earthquakes, floods, or blackouts. They're also stabilizers. Food in the pantry is not just disaster insurance. It's a hedge against inflation and a buffer against a bad month. Stored water is not just for a municipal failure. Backup power is not just for a storm. And cash reserves are not just for total collapse. What they do is these things create margin where the world gets more expensive and more strained and less reliable. Hidden tax. Well, tax season is wrapping up, but there's a hidden tax that you've been paying recently, and it's just adding to the pressures that we outlined in the first point. The second pressure doesn't really get the same attention now as oil, but it's still working its way through the economy and into your home. Tariffs, they're still acting like a hidden tax on top of everything else. And that really matters because this is not happening in a vacuum. Households are already dealing with elevated food prices, higher utility costs, and fuel pressure that's really still moving through the system. And now that you have another layer of cost added by policy, which means the squeeze, it gets tighter, even if the broader inflation headlines sound calmer than they did a year ago. And that's what really makes tariffs matter right now. They're landing on top of a world that's already getting more expensive. And that's not some abstract policy debate that only matters to economists and trade lawyers. It shows up in the price of clothing, electronics, appliances, imported food, tools, parts, and materials. And it also raises the cost of the infrastructure that keeps our energy and industrial systems running. Steel, aluminum, control systems, valve, sensors, and important components. They all get more expensive. And those added costs, they don't just vanish. They get passed through to us. That's why tariffs, they hit households in a way many people miss at first. And it's usually not one giant shock. It's a slow realization that more things cost just enough extra to start changing your decisions. Now, current estimates put the 2026 household burden anywhere from roughly $1,300 to more than $2,500 a year, depending on how it is measured. However you slice it, that's real money. And that's not just some minor adjustment. That is grocery money, fuel money, school clothes money, and repair money. And unfortunately, that lands hardest on lower and middle inome households because they have less room to absorb one more increase in the monthly budget. And what makes this even worse is the timing. These tariffs are hitting as the energy shock is still working its way through freight, shipping, packaging, and food production. So the household is not just paying more because imported goods are more expensive. It's paying more because transport is more expensive, materials are more expensive, and businesses, they're facing pressure from both directions at the same time. And this is how you get compounding pain. One pressure on its own might be manageable. Several at once start changing how people live. And this is already becoming more visible in ordinary life. We've already seen examples of people trying to receive a package and suddenly being told they owe an extra charge because of tariffs. And that makes a point immediately. And that is when policy stops sounding abstract and it starts feeling personal. People, they'll order something, assume the price is settled, and then get hit with an added charge at delivery or a higher cost built in before it even reaches them. And that's how a hidden tax becomes a household reality. You don't need a white paper to understand it once it starts showing up on your porch. So, are you paying sir charges or additional fees for your shipments and packages? Are you feeling the added expenses? Let us know what you're seeing and what you're feeling by leaving a comment below this video. What does this mean to us? It may seem odd to some people for a prepper channel to be talking about global oil, the straight of her moves, tariffs, and things like that. But don't really miss the bigger picture here. If you want to be prepared for the real disasters of the future, then you really have to broaden your understanding of what preparedness means. I mean, yes, preparedness is still about the obvious emergency. It's about storms, earthquakes, blackouts, heat waves, wildfires, floods, and the kinds of disruptions that hit fast and hard. But it's also about the slower emergencies that wear people down over time. It's about the month your grocery bill jumps again. It's about the utility bill that suddenly takes a bigger bite out of your paycheck. It's about the job loss, the medical expense, the rent increase, the insurance hike, or the stretch where everything costs more and your household has less room to absorb it. That's why I keep saying that preps are stabilizers. They help you to hold your ground when life gets tighter. A deeper pantry is not just for disaster. It's a hedge against inflation and a buffer when food prices rise faster than your income. Spare essentials on hand mean that you are less exposed when tariffs, shipping costs, or shortages push everyday items higher. Stored water, backup power, and some cash set aside. They're not only for the big dramatic collapse scenario people picture in their heads. They are practical layers of protection that really give your household more breathing room when the world gets more expensive, more strained, and less reliable. Pain signals. Now, there's one more pressure here that I think deserves our attention, and this one is a little bit different. It's not about oil and it's not about tears directly. It's about what prolonged pressure starts doing to people. Sometimes you feel a body in your pain. Maybe a strange twinge and your mind it just starts running through every possible explanation. Most of the time it turns out to be nothing dramatic at least and maybe you overdid it. Maybe you slept wrong. Maybe it passes. But sometimes that pain is really still worth paying attention to because it's telling you something's off. I think we may be looking at some of those kinds of pain signals in the country right now. Over the past couple of years, we've seen incidents that really don't just look like random outbursts. They carry a certain mood with them. The Kimberly Clark warehouse fire in Ontario is a good example. They're actually only about 20 minutes away from where I'm located here. Now, according to investigators, the worker accused of setting that fire was not just lashing out blindly. He was allegedly filming himself talking about pay, talking about inventory, and expressing the kind of resentment that says this is about more than one bad shift. It points to something deeper. It points to a level of frustration where people start feeling like the system is not merely hard, but it's rigged against them. And that's what gets my attention personally. Not because I think one warehouse fire means we're starting at some imminent mass uprising. I don't believe that. But most people are not going to turn violent. Most people, they still want to work. They want to take care of their families and they want to get through life without chaos. But these incidents, they do tell us something about the emotional temperature in our country. They suggest there is more anger under the surface than a lot of people realize. And they suggest trust is thinner. They suggest more people are feeling concerned, disrespected, and economically squeezed. And that's why this connects so directly to the other pressures that we've been talking about today. When fuel prices stay high, food stays expensive, tariffs quietly add to cost, uh insurance keeps rising, layoffs spread, wages fail to keep pace, and people feel like major institutions keep protecting themselves while ordinary households absorb the damage. The result is a society that becomes more brittle over time. And the strain, it's not only financial, it's social and emotional as well. Life becomes harder to afford, but just as important, prolonged pressure starts changing how people interpret the world around them. Patience, it wears thin, trust erodess, cynicism grows, and once that process gets underway, the effects, they don't always stay neatly contained. And this is not just about Kimberly Clark. Just days later, investigators were looking at another arson case in Ontario, California, the same city, where a man had allegedly set multiple fires inside the mall and was reportedly ranting about low wages. And look, this doesn't prove some coordinated movement is underway, and I don't want to overstate that. But it does suggest that when one act of rage gets heavy attention, it can give language, imagery, or permission to other unstable people who already feel angry, cornered, hopeless, or resentful. And that's how copycat behavior can start to spread. Not because most people support it, but because a small number of people under strain begin acting out in a similar way. That's where I think a prior example like Luigi Manion comes into view. He is a young man that was accused of murdering the United Healthcare CEO in New York. And I'm not bringing that up to glorify because I'm not. I am bringing it up because of the reaction around it. What stood out to me was not the act itself, but the fact that some people immediately try to turn it into a symbol of anti-corporate rage. And that should tell us something. It tells us that there's a rising level of resentment in the culture looking for a target. Again, that doesn't mean some huge populist revolt is around the corner. It does mean that there are signs of a society under stress and I think those signals are worth noticing like you trying to figure out what caused that pain in your body. And I also think we have to be careful here. Not every alarming incident means a bigger wave is coming. Sometimes a fire is just a fire. Sometimes a disturbed person is just a disturbed person. And sometimes a twinge is only a twinge. But when you keep seeing events that rhyme with each other and when they keep circling back to pay pressure, inequality, resentment, and distrust, it really becomes harder to dismiss them entirely. And at the very least, they should make us pay attention to how much pressure many people are under right now and how that pressure can distort behavior. So, do you think these kinds of incidents are isolated or do they point to a deeper level of frustration building in the country? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below this video. What does this mean to us? This all means preparedness is not only about having supplies for the storm, the blackout, or the wildfire. It's also about learning how to live more steadily in a society that feels tighter, more stressed, and less predictable. And that's why situational awareness is so important. You want to pay attention to the tone around you. You want to pay attention to how people are acting in stores, at work, on the road, and in your community. And pay attention when public frustration starts feeling hotter and less contained. You don't need to overreact and you definitely don't need to be paranoid, but you do need to become more aware of your surroundings. On a personal note, um I have found myself paying closer attention in public here lately. I have a CCW license and one of the first things they teach you when you're getting your license beyond situational awareness is to avoid being the one who initiates any engagement. And even if you're forced to defend yourself, you're held to a higher standard because you carry a legal option. So, I've been more intentional about avoiding confrontation and always making sure that I'm keeping options open if something potentially comes up or there's a situation that could escalate. I'm looking for ways and thinking through in my mind, how would I deescalate a situation before it turns into a problem. Uh, I'll give you an example. I was in a movie theater the other night and the guy sitting literally right next to me. He stayed on his phone after the movie started and that light shining, you know, into your eyes, that's annoying. And part of me wanted to say something, but then I had to find myself pausing. I've seen and read too many stories where something small like this, somebody might say something in a movie theater to someone near him, hey, could you, you know, be quiet or something? It can turn into a much bigger situation because the other person reacts the wrong way. So, I just let it go. A few minutes later, he put the phone away. Was it annoying? I mean, sure. But I found myself thinking, "That's where we're at right now. You have to really weigh whether a small confrontation is worth a risk because you don't know how someone else is going to respond." And I don't like that it's come to this, but that's reality. I'm trying to really again think a few steps ahead, stay aware of my surroundings, and really give myself room to move if something starts to escalate. And likewise, sometimes the smartest prep is not dramatic at all. Sometimes it's just simply noticing the environment early, staying grounded, and giving yourself enough space to avoid getting pulled into someone else's chaos. Giveaway. This week's giveaway is going to be a set of emergency LED backup lights. With these, you may not even know the power went out. All you have to do to participate in the giveaway is just simply comment on the video, give it a thumbs up, and complete the form linked in the description below. Completing the form is required so we can randomly select a winner and contact you. The information is only accessible to our team here at City Prepping. So, congrats our last week winner of the solar rechargeable work light, Kalin Wallace. We're going to be reaching out to you shortly to get that prize sent to you. As I always like to do at the end of these videos, I want to leave you with a word of encouragement. And what we cover today, it may look like three separate problems, but they all obviously hit at the same place, which is your household. Rising energy costs, tariffs, and growing social strain. They don't just stay out there. They show up in your budget, your routines, and your day-to-day life. And that's really why preparedness matters. Preparedness, like we talk about all the time here on the channel, it gives you margin, just a little space when things begin to tighten up. And it gives you options when other things start running out. And right now, I think margin is becoming one of the most valuable things that you can have. And I know for many of you, it's getting tighter. I read the comments. I see it in my own life. I'm seeing with friends and family as well. The pressure, it is real. And if you're feeling it, you're not alone. Let me just say that again. If you are feeling, and I know many of you are, you're not alone. Um, as for me, as to what I'm working on, I mean, it's nothing dramatic. I've been working through small projects here around the property. I usually try to show video of what I'm working on, but it's just been mostly miscellaneous, small stuff. Um, you know, I spent the last weekend putting in shelves in the main house here on this property with my son as things were getting disorganized. Uh, things were kind of all over scattered all over the place and I was having a hard time just finding basic tools. So, we built an organization system. And, you know, just been working on building things, you know, just one piece at a time. But sometimes in all of this, it can feel overwhelming when you start looking at everything at once. So, I try to stay focused on what the next step is in front of me. And that's all I can affect. And that's the approach I would encourage you to take. Don't try to solve and try to fix everything at once. Just pick one weakness and reduce it this week at your food supply. Build a little more buffer where you can strengthen one system that you can at your home. And again, I I probably shared this before years ago. I used to listen to a lot of motivational speakers, a lot of Navy Seals on YouTube, and one of them shared his own personal story and what he learned going through SEL training. uh the only thing that kept him sane in a course in a program that was designed to break him down was to just focus on the next thing in front of him. His attitude was all I can do all I can do is affect this one thing. I can't change all these other circumstances around me. And that's my encouragement to you. Don't get overwhelmed. Pick something. Is it food that you're you need work on food storage? Is it water? I mean, we've got a gazillion videos in our library here on this channel. All you have to do is go to the search tab in our YouTube library and type for whatever term you're looking at. Security, food, water, energy. We've covered it all in many times in many different ways. And so my encouragement in landing this is this. You don't need to panic, but you do need to prepare. Stay steady, stay aware, and keep making your home harder to shake. And that's the approach I would encourage you to take right now. Don't try to fix everything at once. Just again, peak, you know, pick one weakness and reduce it. this week. Build a little buffer wherever you can and just strengthen your home. And again, don't panic. I don't know how many times I needed to say that because I've had people reach out to me recently panicking and again, you know, we're all seeing the same thing. And again, I get it. I'm not I know I come off as calm a lot of times on this channel and that's intentional because I'm I'm calm my own in my own life. It's it's you know, I can see the same thing as we all see and it's frustrating. I have a lot of friends that are concerned and you know they we all talk it through on a daily basis. It's therapeutic sometimes have to talk these things through. But again, I try to keep a level head because freaking out it's just not going to do me well and it's not going to help my family. All right, so let me end this by suggesting a couple of videos you're definitely going to want to watch next. And I think this is a good time to really revisit my video on developing situation awareness. It's a video I did years ago because it really helps you to read your environment better and stay steadier when the immediate world around you feels a little less predictable. And I also want to point you to a video on building a 3-week food supply because that just gives you one step uh or rather it gives you one step help you move ahead and get your household in order and more stable. It's really fundamentally core to your prepping and it's the single best thing that you can easily put into place right now. And I'll link both of those videos here on the side screen and in the description and comments section below.