[@DwarkeshPatel] Stephen Kotkin — How Do We Explain Stalin?

Link: https://youtu.be/YMfd3EoHfPI

Short Summary

Number One Takeaway: Authoritarian regimes face an inherent dilemma: they require modernization to compete geopolitically, but modernization necessitates empowering the working class and intellectual elite, who may then challenge the regime's authority.

Executive Summary: Modernization in autocratic regimes necessitates a constant balancing act between acquiring technological and economic advancements to compete on the world stage, and simultaneously suppressing the potentially destabilizing socio-political changes that inevitably accompany such progress. Ultimately, the long-term stability of any nation depends on political legitimacy rooted in the people.

Key Quotes

Here are five quotes from the transcript that represent significant insights:

1. "Modernization is not a sociological process that kind of just happens. It's a geopolitical process. You modernize because you need to compete in the international system." This quote highlights the driving force behind modernization, framing it as a necessity for survival in a competitive global landscape, rather than a natural societal progression.

2. "The thing that gets you the engineers also gets you the possible political ideas. So the tsarist regime begins to repress the very thing it needs to compete in the international system." This illustrates the core dilemma faced by autocratic regimes attempting to modernize – the inherent risk of importing ideas and values that challenge their authority.

3. "For every seeming lesson, there's an equal and opposite lesson that you can also learn." This is a meta-commentary on the nature of history and its application to current events, acknowledging the complexity of deriving clear-cut guidance from the past.

4. "They love the state as an instrument for social justice, social engineering. They love to empower themselves as the decision-makers because, after all, they're the intellectuals. They've studied the theory. They know better than others." This explains the continued draw of Marxism-Leninism for certain intellectuals and young people, emphasizing the appeal of centralized power and social engineering.

5. "The repressive apparatus is not a machine… It's people…It works until the moment the people in it decide not to do it anymore. That's where the political legitimacy variable is ultimately decisive." This highlights a key vulnerability in authoritarian regimes. Repression ultimately depends on the willingness of individuals within the system to carry out orders, which can break down when legitimacy is lost.

Detailed Summary

Here's a detailed summary of the YouTube video transcript, focusing on the key topics, arguments, and information discussed:

• Introduction:

  • The guest is Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of two volumes of a three-volume biography of Stalin.

• The Tsarist Regime:

  • Repression: The question is posed about how repressive the Tsarist regime was. Rather than judging through the lens of the 20th Century, Kotkin suggests we evaluate based on the norms of the time.
  • Modernization Dilemma: The regime faced the challenge of modernizing its military and industry to compete internationally, which required workers and engineers. However, it wanted to suppress labor movements and independent political ideas.
  • Fundamental Dilemma: Tsarist Russia exemplified the dilemma of importing modernity (technology, industry) while keeping out associated political values (freedom, property rights, separation of powers) that could undermine autocratic rule.
  • Geopolitics of Modernization: Modernization is presented as a geopolitical process driven by international competition, not an inevitable sociological one. Countries modernize to survive threats from other powers.
  • Existential Threat for Autocrats: Autocratic regimes face an existential threat from this dilemma, as political instability can arise from failing to compete or embracing modern processes.

• Lessons from History and the Lesser of Two Evils:

  • Retrospective View: Kotkin notes in retrospect the constitutionalists should have worked with reformers Stolypin and Witte. Also, Provisional Government factions should have united against the Bolsheviks.
  • Examples of "Lesser Evil": He discusses the idea of embracing the lesser of two evils in historical contexts, mentioning Stolypin and the February 1917 revolution but also Weimar government's alliance with Hitler to fend off communists.
  • Stalin's Early Motivations: Stalin was initially dedicated to fighting genuine injustices of the Tsarist regime. He saw the regime as unjust and repressive.
  • Perverse Consequences: Stalin gave up a promising future to fight for justice but ultimately created a much more unjust regime.

• The Failure of Constitutionalism in the Mass Age:

  • Durnovo's Foresight: Pyotr Durnovo, understood if the Tsar was removed the constitutionalists would not succeed but only bring chaos and revolution.
  • Early 20th Century Attempts: Many attempts to institute constitutional order in the mass age failed like Mexico, Iran, China, Russia, and Portugal.
  • Success Before the Mass Age: Constitutional order was historically introduced before mass political mobilization (restricted franchise), giving a breathing space.
  • The Mass Age Problem: In the mass age, peasants and workers demand more than just constitutional order which leads to more leftist revolutions.

• The Russian Peasantry and the inevitability of Leftism

  • Peasant Land Hunger: The peasants desire for land was not adequately addressed, leading to instability and radicalism.
  • Emancipation of Serfs: Serf's didn't get the land that they needed.
  • Peasant Revolution in 1917-1918: It was about seizing the land.
  • Differences from Germany: The lack of a peasant army to put down the leftist movement (seizing land in the cities) as there was in Germany.

• Communism in Peasant Countries and Collectivization:

  • Reversal of Marxist Prediction: Communist revolutions occurred in peasant countries, contrary to the Marxist idea that capitalism must precede socialism.
  • Peasant Stability Through Land Ownership: Capitalism and private property "buy in" the peasants, giving them a stake in the status quo.
  • Peasant Mistreatment & Unimaginable Oppression under Stalin: The question is posed, if the peasants are key to a regime's stability, why didn't Stalin's collectivization (enslavement of 100 million peasants) break the regime?

• The Repressive Apparatus:

  • Scale of Repression: In comparison to Stalin, the Tsarist Regime had a small secret police force following only intellectuals. In contrast, Stalin built a vast repressive apparatus to enslave the peasants.
  • The Enslavement of Peasants: The need to build a police force to make that happen.
  • The Surplus of Sadism during this Period: Stalin was not the only one inflicting pain, it was hundereds of thousands if not millions.
  • Importance of Ideology: Kotkin stressed the importance of ideology in these regimes. The true believers thought of capitalist nations as evil, and worked to end war and end social injustices.
  • Building a new World: Those involved thought they were participating in a world historical process.
  • Justification for Brutality: They know that there are people against it, hiding behind professions of loyalty. To get the guilty, you have to victimize the innocent.
  • Marxism-Leninism Empowers Intellectuals: Marxism-Leninism empowers intellectual and lumpen intellectual class. They have the power to make decisions.

• The Paradoxes of Marxism-Leninism:

  • Continual Adherence: Despite millions of deaths, people continue to adhere to this ideology.
  • Empowerment: The belief in overthrowing injustices and that contravening the ideology will put you in bed with those evils.
  • Justification of Ends: Loyal to the outcome of overthrowing capitalism. Some know there are costs along the way, but there's a constant threat that if you contravene the ideology you are in bed with the evil forces that the ideology is trying to overthrow.
  • Revolt on the Left: There is civil war between those that say capitalism is evil and those who say capitalism is problematic but needed for prosperity.

• Failures Don't Become Discrediting:

  • Instead, it becomes a second wind once acknowledged. Never the system at fault.
  • Communist Parties have to suppress political alternatives.
  • China had no other alternatives at the time other than a return to Tsarism.
  • Xi Jinping wants to make it better and to keep the Communist Party monopoly.

• China's Economic Miracle:

  • Communist Party put the people into poverty and then people lifted themselves out.
  • Because of the Party's rule, the population was in poverty.
  • The communists must reassert their monopoly on power because the very wealth created is a threat.
  • Japan was lost the war, it was incinerated. America helped them rise to the second-largest economy in the world and that Japan is partners with America. Deng Xiaoping divorced the Soviet Union and married America.

• Counterfactuals and Power:

  • The conversation then switched to a counterfactual question of "What would a Stalin-type figure have done if he found himself on the periphery of somebody else's regime?"

• Stalin's Uniqueness:

  • It's easy to say that Stalin caused the problem, but who else could have done what he did?

• Counterfactuals:

  • Historians often look down on the idea of counterfactuals, but it must be done.
  • It's a question of: how much is the personality and how much is the system?
  • Who else among the Marxist-Leninists could have said "Whether we can do this or not, we have to do this because we can't have a socioeconomic base that's capitalist and have the communist regime survive.
  • Was someone capable of being Stalin in that group?

• The Problem of Enacting Repression:

  • They are elite military units and they are told to shoot these workers, but the workers were peasants the day before.
  • That there comes a point where the regime callls out the repression, and the repressors had agency and didn't repress.

• Long Run vs. Short Run:

  • It's that long run that matters.
  • You need to elognate the short run and get to the competition.

• Authoritarianism and Legitimacy:

  • The strategic partnership among the authoritarian regimes is a fake. It's opportunistitc.
  • Iran needs political legitimacy but lacks it.

• Regime's Legitimacy:

  • Is not permanent. Their real freedom and citizenship. Citizens have the right to vote and the ability to punish what they do not like. The only problem is when the public thinks there are bad, worse, and even worse candidates on the ballet.

• Concluding Remarks:

  • The importance of tech to the regime
  • "You can never be half-pregnant"
  • Importance of China and economic growth to the Communist Party
  • It's the lack of political ligitimacy

This summary captures the core arguments and information presented in the video transcript.